How Experts Make Decisions

In Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, Gary Klein explains how experts make reliable snap decisions over novices.

RPD Model
The recognition-primed decision (RPD) model integrates two processes:

1. How decision makers size up the situation
2. How they evaluate the course of action by imagining it

There's 3 basic variations of the RPD:

1. Simple match - how have I solved this before? This is a typical case. The decision maker recognizes a situation and knows the goals, cues, expectancies, and actions. "if ... then,"
2. Diagnosing the situation - which situation is this closest to this? This doesn't match a typical case, or it maps onto multiple cases. The decision maker needs to figure out which case is a closest match. "if(???) ... then,"
3. Evaluating courses of action - what's the best action? This can involve adjusting an action or ruling options out. "if ... then(???)"

While the RPD model sounds obvious, it's different from earlier decision theories.

Rational Choice Strategy
In the rationale choice strategy, you define the evaluation dimensions, weight each one, rate each option on each dimension, multiply the weightings, total up the scores, and determine the best option.

RPD vs. Rational Choice

• If you can't trust someone to make a big judgement, such as which option is best, why trust all the little judgements that go into the rational choice strategy?
• There's usually not enough time or information to make rational choice strategy work.
• The rational choice strategy is not going to ensure that novices make good choices.
• The rational choice strategy is usually not helpful for experienced decision makers.
• The rational choice strategy can be useful in working with teams, to calibrate everyone's perspectives on the options.

Key Take Aways

• RPD quickly evaluates courses of actions by imagining how they'll be carried out, not by formal analysis and comparison.
• Be skeptical of formal decision making methods, since they're not what most people use in real scenarios.
• Be sensitive to when you need to compare options and when you don't. When you're new to a situation, you may need to cast a wide net. Other times, you can rely on your expertise and drill down on a smaller set of alternatives.
• RPD is focused on being poised to act rather than stuck in analysis paralysis until all evaluations have been completed.

My Related Posts

• Satisficing to Get Things Done

Satisficing to Get Things Done

In Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, Gary Klein writes:

The difference between singular and comparitive evaluation is linked to the research of Herbert Simon, who won a Nobel Prize for economics. Simon (1957) identified a decision strategy he calls satisficing: Selecting the first option that works. Satisficing is different from optimizion, which means trying to come up with the best strategy. Optimizing is hard and it takes a long time. Satisficing is more efficient. The singular evaluation strategy is based on satisficing. Simon used the concept of satisficing to describe the decision behavior of businesspeople.

The key here is that satisficing means figuring out what a satisfactory outcome would be and then finding ways to achieve it.

Gary goes on to point out that this is how experienced fireground commanders can quickly make effective decisions under extreme time pressure. Rather than explore all possible options and evaluate their trade-offs, they quickly run a mental simulation in their mind. If they find the option won't work, they move on to the next.

The key here is "experienced" fireground commanders. Novices need to evaluate options and their trade-offs to make effective decisions, which is a much more time consuming process.

Key Take Aways

1. Experts avoid optimizing a single value -- they look for a best fit against a set of criteria, and take the first fit against that (very quickly in their head).
2. Novices don’t have this option because they don’t know the options, don’t know the important criteria, and don’t have the benefit of experience to evaluate against.

Additional Resources

• Professional Writing 408 on Satisface
• Wikipedia on Satisficing

Fear of Becoming Who You Truly Are

Is the fear of failure holding you back? Maybe not. Maybe it's actually the fear of success. In The War of Art: Break Through the Blocks and Win Your Inner Creative Battles, Steven Pressfield writes about how we fear becoming who we truly are.

You're Capable of More
Pressfield writes:

We fear discovering more than we think we are. More than our parents/children/teachers think we are. We fear that we actually possess the talent that our still, small voice tells us.

Why Fear Success?
Pressfield writes:

We fear this because, if it's true, then we become estranged from all we know. ... We will lose our friends and family who will no longer recognize us. We will wind up alone, in the cold void of starry space, with nothing and no one to hold on to.

But is it really that bad?
Pressfield reveals a surprise:

Of course, this is exactly what happens. But here's the trick. We wind up in space, but no alone. Instead we are tapped into an unquenchable, undepletable, inexhaustible source of wisdom, consciousness, companionship. Yeah, we lose friends. But we find friends too. And they're better friends, truer friends. And
we're better and truer to them.

Key Take Aways
Here's my key take aways:

• That little voice inside that tells you that you're capable of more is right.
• It's a path of self-discovery that can sometimes be lonely.
• As you become who you're really capable of, you'll lose some friends, but find new ones.